Good evening,
This is Part 3 of The Reckoning, the final installment. Part 1 established the attendance baseline. Part 2 revealed that much of it is a measurement artifact. Tonight, we count the cost.
The Number
Since 2018, KIPP Delta has lost 2,198 students and $2,483,897 in per-pupil funding. After a brief dip in 2022, attrition climbed to its highest sustained level in 2024-2025 -- over 300 students per year walking out the door.
But this year, the mid-year number tells a different story. Sixty-one students have left since October -- the lowest mid-year count in nine years. Something is working. Historically, roughly 60% of annual attrition occurs over summer, when families decide not to return. The spring ahead is our window to protect this progress.
The Gradient
Across six years and 8,517 student records, attendance predicts attrition with striking consistency:
| Attendance | Attrition Rate | Students |
|---|---|---|
| 95-100% | 16.2% | 5,540 |
| 90-95% | 20.0% | 1,842 |
| 80-90% | 25.9% | 911 |
| Below 80% | 42.0% | 224 |
Students attending below 80% leave at 2.6 times the rate of those above 95%. Of the 224 students in the bottom tier, 94 left -- nearly half.
The Connection
KBC reports 96.9% attendance with 26% compliance. If the true rate is closer to 88%, the number of students in the danger zone is almost certainly higher than what the dashboard shows. At-risk KBC students dropped to 68% attendance in December while the school averaged 95%. We cannot intervene on students we cannot see.
What We Can Do
The path forward requires three things: measure accurately (compliance must reach 90%+ at every campus), identify early (the gradient shows us exactly which students are most at risk), and intervene on Fridays (the cheapest, most targeted day to recover attendance).
None of this requires new systems, new hires, or new budgets. It requires using the systems we already have.
View the full interactive report -- includes the 9-year attrition trend, the attendance-to-attrition gradient, grade-level attrition forensics, and the at-risk divergence charts.
The cost of inaction is $2.48 million and 2,198 names. But for the first time in nine years, the mid-year data says we have a chance to write a different ending. The time is now.